The most of the
countries which currencies are considered when calculating a real effective
rate in foreign trade with Russia have a share less than 4%. The eight of the
countries which specific weight in the index of actual effective ruble exchange
rate more than 4% there are China, Netherland, Germany, Italy, Ukraine,
Belarus, Japan and Turkey, and their general share in a foreign trade turnover
of Russia has made 58,52% in 2015.
Thus, the index of a real effective
exchange rate is the main indicator that characterizing dynamics of the
currencies and change of competitiveness of the countries in the world market –
increase in actual effective rate of national currency leads to decreasing in
competitive situation: export becomes more expensive, and import is cheaper.
Analysis reveals that the mean of
exchange rate volatility and mean of export or import growth series in Russia.
In other words, there is an obvious association between periods of high
exchange rate volatility and the periods of low growth in trade.
Tables 1.2 and 1.3; During the period of the Russian currency crush,
extremely high volatility period is observed in Russian exchange rate having
the mean values of 0.2217.
After Russian financial default, from the mean
values, one can see roughly that these economies have achieved to stabilize the
exchange rates considerably in comparison with previous periods. On the other
hand, the mean values of export and import growth series increased.
horizontal bands in 1995; crawling bands during 1996- 1997; managed floating in
1998; independent floating in 1999; after the Russian crisis managed floating
until the end of 2006.
Table 1.3: Fluctuation of Rubble
As it has been noted above, in economic
literature there is a set of the domestic and foreign works devoted to
identification of interrelations between an exchange rate and trade of Russian national
economy. Different researchers, using various theoretical models and being
based on various data that give sometimes to opposite conclusions. Therefore, influence
of devaluation of dynamics of production and real GDP still remains open.
Table 1.4: World & Russian GDP in 1995-2016
During crisis of 2008
— 2009 there was the first for all post-war decades fall of world GDP (though
for only 0,1%) and falling of a turn, the first since 1982 world trade (but at
once for 11%). And after crisis the character has changed development of
international trade — since 2012 it began to grow at slower rates, than world
GDP. Dynamics of international trade is an important background for development
of Russia, especially in the current conditions of economic downturn and
external price shock in communication with a situation in the world market. Delay of GDP growth and export of Russia went almost equally in 2010 — 2014 then
GDP has gone to a negative zone gains, despite acceleration of real export
growth. According to Rosstat, in real expression the Russian export for 2013 —
2015 I fell only in the IV quarter 2014 and the III quarter 2015, while import
is in a negative zone already it is more than two years of