Modern Risk Management Techniquesin Aviation SirZohaib Hassan NaqviDepartmentof ElectronicsEngineering,Universityof Engineering & Technology, [email protected]

edu.pkFrazBashir Departmentof ElectronicsEngineering,Universityof Engineering & Technology, [email protected] Butt Departmentof ElectronicsEngineering,Universityof Engineering & Technology, [email protected]   Abstract— This paper educates the readers about the risk managementtechniques that can help avoid the air incidents. Few of the deadliest aircrashes including the Tenerife disaster 1977, Japanese Airlines flight 123 1985and Charkhi-Dadri midair collision were taken into consideration to chalk downthe errors and lethal mistakes on the part of pilots, technical flaws and theevents that led to catastrophe. In the light of the errors that led to thesevere consequences the risk management system is devised with an objective toavoid such accidents in the future. (Abstract)                                                                                                                                                       I.         Introduction   History has witnessed a lot of air crashincidents over the years and when the air crash investigators were called on tosearch for the cause of the crashes they madestartling claims and interestingly in all the cases a chain of mistakes at thesmaller level when amplified led to severe consequences.

To deal with thesedisasters it is critical to understand the regularities that have combinedtogether to give out so massive consequences in the form of precious lives andhigh scale financial loses for the companies. The tentative accidents causesprimarily include the negligence from daily routine checks, responding to morehabitual ways in emergency situations demanding extraordinary actions,communication barriers between the air traffic controllers and the pilots andthe problems in the speech exchange systems. This paper gives about a briefaccount of the common mistakes and errors that have been pivotal in theunfortunate plane crashes and the suggested solution and the necessary courseof action is devised to help curb these accidents.                                                                                                                                              II.        Literature review  Although the airline has proved to besafe over the years, finding new ways and means to improve the safety in theaviation department has always been a prime focus of the safety enthusiasts.

Over the last years many media report arose to the occasion which include theWall Street Journal (Dahl & Miller, 1996; Goetz, 1998) and USA Today(Stroller, 2000) have devised a system to determine the airline safety solelyon the basis of accident rate. Bowen and Lu (2000) elevated the importance ofmeasuring airline safety performance and suggested advance and better tools forthat. They actually put forward a real time risk audit model for the airlinemanagers to provide a better view of dealing with the potential threats thatmay prove lethal if not dealt properly. In 2001 they proposed Aviation SafetyRating. The study actually compared 10 major airlines’ safety performance basedupon the four major components involving Enforcement Action, Accident Rate,Management Performance, and Financial Health. For helping airline managers toprioritize the accident factors in order to conduct effective safety training,Bowen and Lu (2004) proposed a follow-up study that primarily focused upon theseriousness of the risk factors that may affect the airline safety operations.They reported the importance level linked to the safety factors using arelatively new term, namely performance sensitivity (Sp). It was defined as:the percentage change of overall safety score due to the percentage change of aspecific safety factor.

Based on Sp calculation, a list of factors affectingsafety performance was created. The results indicated that fatality rate,average fleet age, and accident rate were the most crucial factors affectingairline’s safety performance.Although the various studies beingconducted in the field of aviation have focused upon the airline safetymanagement and the ways and means to curb the accidents and incidents bydevising different methods to determine and improve the safety levels of thevulnerable systems. Interestingly none of the research was put forward so as todetermine the root factors which contributed to the catastrophe when added upand then devise the safety systems accordingly. The vacuum in this zone was themotivation that paved way for further research and efforts to be put forth inthis department. In this study, the Safety system is applied with an agenda tofill this knowledge gap.

                                                                                                                             III.       Discussion and methodology  Before jumping directly to the riskmanagement system it is critical to understand the factors that can play theirrole to create worse circumstances and endanger the lives of many. So thefollowing account gives the common causes contributing to the catastrophe.A.   Undue interruptions in thenormal routine operations of aircrafts  In the case ofbad weather or subject to no clearance from the airport due to severe weatherconditions sometimes the airplanes are made to change their routes and destinationsso the flight crew and the air traffic controllers face the interruptions intheir routines which they are probably not accustomed to. Also the weather hasbeen a prime factor playing its part in this scenario due to which the pilotshave to do split second decisions at the right times and little mistakes herelead to grave consequences.B.     Stress and duty crew times  Multiplefactors such as personal family problems, the delayed flight schedules,inability to take right decisions under stress and the fatigue factor havealways been the prime considerations of the researchers after the unfortunateair crashes over the period of time.

Interestingly the fatigue factor has beenfound has a major cause of most of the incidents happened in the history. Dueto a very hectic schedule of flights the pilots have been found vague anduncertain about their decisions in the critical situations causing severeblunders as asserted by the psychologists in many airplane crash investigationspost air crashes. C.    Miscommunication between the pilots and theair traffic controllers  The Leads that has been pursued post aircrashes have also pointed towards the miscommunication between the pilots andthe air traffic controllers as a major factor. Chakri Dadri mid-air collisionone of the worst avionics incidents ever recorded ofthe Saudi airline and the Kazak airline has been a consequence of the Kazakairline’s pilot not following the instruction of the pilot related to thealtitude level of the airplane resulting in both the airplanes locating in thesame air space and ultimately went on to crash into each other resultantlylosing 349 lives. So the instructions of the ATC are critical to be understoodin a proper way and responded accordingly to curb disasters.

D.   Routine checks before take off    Clearance of the plane before the take-offholds key as the engineers check whether the plane’s engine, sensors, pitottubes and the electronic components are working properly and are good enoughfor the plane to take off. In case there are doubts over any of theaforementioned points the plane is not cleared to take off unless cleared.After this the pilots and the co-pilots have to check for the routine checksinvolving the de-icing of the wings in case of snow, setting oxygen levels toauto and inputting the correct longitudinal and latitudinal details within thenavigation system. Negligence to any of these routine check could lead to graveconsequences and has led to over the years.

The word “data” is plural, notsingular.E.    Manufacturer flaws   Over the years many of the airplanes havebeen involved in unfortunate air crashes due to the manufacturing flaws on thepart of the companies and resultantly losing many lives and ultimately endingup with stopping the flight operations altogether resulting in massivefinancial losses. Reported causes of the aircrashes have been several and its very difficult to sum such a broad categoryof causes over here so the above mentioned causes are not the only causesresponsible. Bird crash, ground radar malfunctioning, hijacking, maintenancepersonnel negligence, individualism in the cockpit have been the contributingfactors too. The major task for us to devise a system that could help manageand avert the incidents.

Below enlisted are the safety systems that couldpossibly determine the probability and severity of these incidents so that themeasures and necessary actions could be taken.A.    Riskmitigation assessment    The term risk basically defines the harm thatcan cause harm/trouble for somebody and also categorizes the level ofharm/danger that can be caused to somebody. Risk management is crucial for thesafety management and is dependent upon the five essential steps on its way. Equipment, technology, procedure and organization flaw      Equipment, technology, procedure and organization flaw                                                                            (DangerIdentification) Spot out of the probability of the occurrence of the event                                                                             (DangerIdentification) Equipment, technology, procedure and organization flaw      Chalk down the seriousness of the repercussions if event occur  occurs                                                                                                                                                                 (Eventprobability)                                                                           Is the risk tolerable in terms of consequences and damage and is it within safety parameters of organization                                                                           (Severityof risk)                                                                                                 (Riskcontrol)   So through a series of proposed course ofactions it can be determined if the desired risk should be accepted or therequired measures should be taken in order to mitigate the risk.


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