Abstract

 

This paper explores the possible changes
that will be made in the world with respect to the development of artificial
intelligence.

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Since the effects of AI are said to start changing
the world within the next fifty years, it becomes important to assess how our lifestyles
will be affected and what the future of our generation will be like.

 

For now, it is too soon to tell what exactly
will become of the world if artificial intelligence continues to develop at the
rapid pace it is developing at, this paper tries to look at different versions
of the future by looking at the opinions of various experts and pioneers in the
field.

 

Introduction

 

Artificial Intelligence
is a word which evokes strong emotions and responses from everyone.

While some people believe
that artificial intelligence is necessary in the world if we wish to progress,
some argue that it is disruptive and will destroy the basic nature of humanity.
While some people feel it will help save millions of lives and make our
lifestyles better, some argue that artificial intelligence will make humans
obsolete and leave millions jobless. This has led to much debate and an attempt
to answer the question: how will artificial intelligence change the human race?

 

What is Artificial Intelligence?

 

John McCarthy, the
founder of artificial intelligence, defined artificial intelligence as, “The
science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent
computer programs.”

 

Artificial
intelligence is defined as a branch of Computer Science, refers to those machines
or programs, and the creation of those machines or programs that simulate human
intelligence, and behavior.

 

Goals of AI

 

These machines or
software are designed for various uses, some of which include:

 

Learning
Problem
solving
Reasoning
Motion
Manipulation
Creativity
Speech
recognition
Planning
Language
Processing

 

 

How Far Have We Come in the Field of AI?

 

The field of artificial
intelligence has come a long way from its foundation, and is rapidly advancing.
The term ‘artificial intelligence’ was coined in 1956 at a conference held in Dartmouth
College. Research on the topic was released after the conference at Dartmouth
was made public, which led the government to fund the research for the development
of artificial intelligence. However, in the 1970s, progress was slow, and this
led to difficulty in obtaining funds for research. This period came to be known
as the first AI Winter.

 

There was a boom in
the development of AI in the early 1980s, and this led to the creation of artificially
intelligent devices were initially based on simple programs, and their scope
was relatively limited. Expert system, which were designed in the 1980s, were the
first successful AI software designed to imitate the decision-making abilities of
human, and were created to solve complex problems. After this was a decline in
the field of AI development one more.

 

There was a revival
of the field of AI in the late twentieth century. An example, in 1997, IBM’s
chess playing computer program Deep Blue, beat chess grand master Gary
Kasparov.

 

Today, artificial
intelligence is deeply ingrained in almost every aspect of our lives, from
banking to entertainment. In today’s world, artificial intelligence is
everywhere- Siri and Alexa are just a few basic examples of artificial
intelligences that have become commonly used. Artificial intelligence is
beginning to help solve some of the world’s most pressing issues such as diseases
and food shortages. Artificial Intelligence in Medical Epidemiology (Aime) is a
system that can predict where outbreaks of diseases like Zika are most likely
to happen. The Mcrops Project has enabled farmers in Uganda to spot diseases responsible
for destroying their crops. AI is revolutionizing the field of healthcare. In
December 2017, the Apple Watch helped save a man’s life by notifying him of an
impending heart attack.

 

However, with new
advancements being made in the field every day, what could be the implications
on humanity?

 

What is the Future of AI?

 

Machine Learning and its Implications

 

One of the main goals in the development
of Artificial Intelligence is the creation of a machine that will surpass all human
abilities. With the help of machine learning, this is becoming a possibility.
Machine learning is the development of programs that can access data and learn
it for themselves, this will allow computers to learn automatically without
human intervention.

 

An example of technologies being developed
to use this include the MICO robotic arm. This machine will result in a robotic
arm with sharing of control between the machine and the human.

 

The Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot, through
learning, can now stitch together pig intestines better than any human surgeon.

 

One of the main things that sets human intelligence
apart now is language. Though we have AI, such as Siri and Alexa, that can understand
basic spoken commands, researchers are now attempting, using machine learning, to
create artificial intelligence that has greater language understanding
capability. This could result in the creation of machines we can easily
communicate with.

 

 

Healthcare

 

Artificial
intelligence is primarily being created to solve problems. One of the problems
that artificial intelligence is working on solving is healthcare. DeepMind,
Google’s AI company is creating software to diagnose cancer from patient
scars.  Software is also being created
for the early diagnosis of heart disease and Alzheimer’s.

 

It is also predicted
that by the year 2021, wearable devices will help users add an average of six
months to their lifespans.

 

Road Safety

 

The death rate for
driving is 1.3 deaths per 100 miles driven, as per a report from the US
National Safety Council. However, for autonomous systems, the death rate is
much lesser- only one death for 130 million miles. We can expect
to see driverless cars on the road in twenty years.

 

Climate Change

 

Robots are being developed to reduce pollution. IBM has a project, Green
Horizon, which is developing a computer that can predict the intensity of air
pollution in different areas in advances. This could help in reducing pollution
by closing factories, or restricting drivers on the roads in areas where
pollution is expected to increase.

 

Renewable Resources

 

Artificial intelligence is also being developed to help solve the issue
of depleting resources. Upside Energy is a start-up building algorithms to help
store and release energy at convenient times. This could be critical in helping
make renewable sources of energy such as solar energy more commonly useable.

 

Revolutionizing War

According to a research conducted by Greg
Allen on AI and National Security, “In the short term, advances in artificial
intelligence will likely allow more autonomous robotic support to war
fighters, and accelerate the shift from manned to unmanned combat missions.” The research states that in the long term, AI will transform
military power and warfare.

What is the future of
human jobs in a world of artificial intelligence?

 

Robotics and artificial intelligence will impact wide segments of daily
life by 2025, with huge implications for a range of industries such as health
care, transport and logistics, customer service, and home maintenance. Computers are already surpassing humans at tasks
that were deemed deeply human, even those tasks that require creativity. The Bank of England’s chief
economist stated that 80 million jobs in the United States, and 15 million jobs
in the United Kingdom might be taken over by robots. In January 2016, a study
found that 60% occupations could be computerised.

 

What does this mean for the
future of humans in a world run by artificially intelligent machines?

 

Elon Musk has stated, “There
certainly will be job disruption. Because what’s going to happen is robots will
be able to do everything better than us. … I mean all of us.” 

 

A study by Oxford University
academicians found that 702 occupations were at risk of being taken over by
robots. Jobs such as that of a telemarketer, loan officer, cashier, and taxi
driver are most likely to be exposed to automation. Robots are mainly predicted
to take over jobs that are repetitive in nature, such as that of a lawyer.

 

Relation Between Wage Gaps and Artificial
Intelligence

 

Artificial Intelligence will be able to perform more tasks
more efficiently than humans in the near future. This could mean that
automation might make it possible to create more wealth without labor.

 

A report published in
2017 by the Institute for Public Policy
Research has showed that automation will only increase the gender wage gap. The
research showed that a larger percentage of jobs held by women (46.8%) have the
potential to be automated, as compared to the percentage of jobs held by men
(40.9%). The reason for this is “women’s underrepresentation in high-skill
occupations.”

 

A study conducted by the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that for every robot integrated
in the US economy, employment would reduce by 5.6 workers.

There is also the possibility that mass automation will increase the
rich-poor wage gap. This will be a result of automation of jobs performed by
unskilled workers, rendering unskilled workers jobless. Also, high-skilled
workers such as people working in the fields of engineering and technology,
will only grow richer because of an increase in demand.

However, there will
also be positive sides to the integration of automatons. A research conducted
by PwC states that automated machines will lead to the creation of more jobs,
and greater income in sectors that are less automatable, such as personal services.
The research has also stated automated machines could lead to “quite possibly also a more skewed
income distribution with a greater proportion going to those with the skills to
thrive in an ever more digital economy – this would put a premium not just on
education levels when entering the workforce, but also the ability to adapt
over time and reskill throughout a working life.”

While
many jobs will become mostly automated, many new jobs will be created in their
place, requiring different, and better skills. In support of some claims that
large scale unemployment will not be a result of automation, is the Luddite Fallacy, which states that technological advancements
will not lead to a long-term increase in unemployment. The fallacy states that
technological advancements will just lead to a creation of a new set of jobs
which will require different skills.

 

However, many experts have indeed said
that jobs for humans won’t entirely vanish, only their purpose and scope will
change. As explained by the author of The Future of the Professions and
Tomorrow’s Lawyers, “What you’re going to see for a
lot of jobs is a churn of different tasks.  So a lawyer today doesn’t develop systems that
offer advice, but the lawyer of 2025 will. They’ll still be called lawyers but
they’ll be doing different things.”

 

In
a research by PwC, AI will help boost the global GDP by 14 percent by 2013. AI
is also expected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the world’s economy in the
next decade.

                                                     

Addressing Concerns
About Self Aware AI

 

Scientists define self-awareness
as “Selecting information and making it available for computation, and the
self-monitoring of these computations to give a subjective sense of certainty.” Some scientists
do believe it is possible to code machines to possess this form of consciousness
in the future. However, this has led to much debate about the safety of mankind
in a world of sentient robots.

 

World renowned
scientists and experts have expressed their fears about the development of AI.
Stephen Hawking has stated that he believes that humanity is at the risk of
being destroyed by self-aware robots. Hawking has gone so far as to state that
AI may even be the “worst event in the history of our civilization.”

 

Elon Musk has also
expressed similar concerns. He has stated that if left unsupervised and
unregulated, “AI is a fundamental risk to the existence
of human civilization.” He believes that odds of AI turning out to be safe are
only around five to ten percent.

 

Seth Shostak, an astronomer, has stated, “The first generation of AI
is just going to do what you tell them; however, by the third generation, then they
will have their own agenda.”

 

However,
many experts stay optimistic about the development of such machines and believe
this could impact the world positively. Bill Gates has stated that there is no
need for people to panic about any developments made in the field of AI.

 

Mark
Zuckerberg also believes that the possibility of robots possibly causing a “doomsday”
is not possible.

 

Conclusion

 

It is too soon to
tell if AI could lead to a golden age of human existence, or if AI could end humanity.

 

Artificial
Intelligence is rapidly developing and is here to help humanity. The level at
which AI is currently at is harmless. For now, machine learning systems are
still in the developmental stage. There are only upsides to artificial intelligence
in today’s world- artificial intelligence has saved many lives.

 

In the long term, the
goal of artificial intelligence is the creation of a machine that will surpass
human intelligence. When this does happen, AI will have to be used carefully
and under closed supervision to revolutionize every aspect of life. Artificial
Intelligence can be used to bring about mostly positive changes if it is
closely regulated, and if placed in the wrong hands, the results will be disastrous.
While the development of AI is pioneering, the world will surely be gravely
affected in the near future by the changes made with the help of the so-called
robot revolution. 

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