ABSTRACTThis paper presents a risk assessment model for construction projects.There are a number of problems in the construction industry in India that areattributed to various factors. The focus of the present research is to identifyfactors that influence the smooth completion of a project and develop a riskassessment model.
The experience and successful in the construction industry nowadays depends not only on the traditional civil engineering programs. Project management, over the last 25-30 years, has developedinto a methodological and systematic way of dealing with all aspects of construction projects. The wide range of topics that are now representing the domain of construction management is more than emphasis on scheduling, cost control and resource management. They include,but are not limited to, engineering project management concepts, quality management system, environmental management system and techniques for analysis the potential success factors.A questionnaire was prepared on the basic of a literature review and wasfilled by contractors, project management experts, having more than 20 years ofexperience in the construction field in India.This paper presentsthe results of a study carried out to identify some of the core issues in construction management which are mentioned above as a skeleton of integrated project management system for construction industry, and highlights the significance of studyingseveral techniques to explain the strength and weakness for this knowledge area. It is planned that this study will continued to model the integrated project management system and develop an expert systemfor purpose of education and training to better equip middle and top level managers in the construction industry with the state-of-the-art tools, techniques and methodologies of projectmanagement. Keywords:Project, management, quality, risk,integrated system, constructionindustry.
INTRODUCTIONSignificant changes in the global economy haveresulted in increased business opportunities for architectural , engineering,and construction (A/E/C) firms throughout the world. Making the decision toexpand operation in a new market, it is important for A/E/C firms to analyzethe risks, benefits, and future market potential of the target country(Hastaket al.1994; Nielsen 1997; Sloan and Weisberg 1997; Tucker 1997;Wang et al.
1998)Projects managementis critical to the organization success of any field. It is group of activities result in new or changed products, services, environments, processes and organizations. Projects increase sales, reduce costs, improve quality and customer satisfaction, enhance the work environment, and result in many other benefits.As organizations have recognized the criticality of projects to their success, projectmanagement has becomea focal point of improvement efforts.More and more organizations have embraced project management as a key strategyfor remaining competitive in today’s highly competitive business environment. Project management centers, trainingprograms, and organizations change programs to improve project management practices are increasingly common parts of strategicplans to improve organizational effectiveness.
Some organizations are just getting started with project management. Others have reached a level of maturitywhereby project management has become a way of life. In the leadingorganizations, projectmanagement is aligned with and integrated into the company’s business goals and objectives. No longer, the individual responsibility of the project manager, top management is taking more responsibility for driving the company’s project management strategies. LITERATURE REVIEW Project management definitionThere are more than one definition for project management,it is the application of collection of tools and techniques to direct the use of divers resources toward the accomplishment of a unique,complex, one-time task within time, cost and quality constraints. Each task requires a particularmix of these tools and techniques structured to fitThe task environment and lifecycle of the task (Oisen, 1971).
In the other hand, the British Standard for project management definedproject management as “theplanning, monitoring and controlof all aspects of a projectand the motivation of all those involved in it to achieve the project objectives on time and to the specified cost, quality and performance” (BS6079, 1996). The UK association of project management (APM) also definesthe project management in the UK Body of Knowledge (BOK) as”the planning, organization, monitoring and control of all aspect of a project and the motivationof all involved to achieve the project objective safely and within agreed time, cost and performance criteria. The project manager is the single point of responsibility for achieve this” (APM, 1993). Other definitions have been offered, “the project management is a human activitythat achieves a clear objectiveagainst time scale” (Reiss, 1993).
Turner suggests that project management could be described as “the art and science of converting vision into reality” (Turner, 1996). Principles of traditional project managementThe thinkingwithin the principles of management usually associated with the management of people. The management of people includes defining what the business unit will do, planning for the number and type of staff who will do it, organizing the staff, monitoring their performance of the tasks assignedthem, and finallybringing a close to theirefforts.Those same principles also apply to projects.
Robert and Rudd define the Project Management as a method and a set of techniques based on the accepted principles of management used for planning, estimating, and controlling work activities to reach a desired end result on time-within budget and according to specification. Figure-1 shows these process phases of a project(Robert and Rudd, 2003). Figure-1. Processphases of a project(Robert and Rudd, 2003) Concepts in project managementNew conceptualdirection in project management was developed during 1990s. Project management began to mature in virtually all types of organizations, including those firms that were project-driven, those that were non-project- driven, and hybrids. Knowledge concerning the benefits project management offered now permeated all levels of management. Firman mentioned, “Thereis aneed to fundamentally change the project management philosophy of the industry.
Rather than each party maintaining a projectmanagement system, there needs to be a single,integrated project-based system” (Firman, 2002). Figure-2 shows the main knowledge areas that be considered byproject manager. These areas include identification process such as scope management, implementation processes as time, cost, quality, resources and communication management. Beside these areas there are other processes as project management, risk management and integration management can be considered as leadership processes. Figure-2. Project management knowledge areas. METHODOLOGYThe focus of this survey was experienced project managers,site engineers and quality control engineers in the Middle East construction industry. The questionnaire list developed depending on the requirements of ISO 9000:2000and ISO 1006:2003.
First form distributed on sample of 20 questionnaires to determine and measure the reasonability of questionsand if they are easy to answered by questionnaires. The average number of years that the questionnaires had held their positionwas more than 7 years. The questionnaire was divided into two sections.
The first asked about the effectof the risk around each element QMS and PMS on the projectcost, the second was for assessmentthe occurrence of risks probabilityfor each element. For risk effectaround the element, the questionnaire was designedto gauge the degree of risk effecton project cost. The respondents were asked to indicate their response by noting any number from 1-10, with 1 being least effect and 5 very effect.For probability of occurrence, the participants were asked to respondby noting a number from 1-10, with 1 low probability and 5 high probability. Table-1 shows the quality requirements and project management functions used for purpose of this study. Table-1. Quality requirement and project management functions.
SYSTEM ELEMENTS 1 Quality system 9 Time related process 2 Management responsibility 10 Cost related process 3 Resources management 11 Resources related process 4 Product realization 12 Personnel related process 5 Measurement, analysis and development 13 Communication related process 6 Strategic process 14 Risk related process 7 Independency management process 15 Purchasing related process 8 Scope related The weight for each element and specific weight obtained asbelow (Ibrahim, 2006):Weight of element = effect x probability……………….. (1) Specific weight of an element = weight of the element / totalThen we calculatethe standard deviation to understand the type of dispersion and how the data is far fromitsmean as in equation (4):2weight of all elements ……..
(2)Dispersion of data collected was studied in orderStandard deviation(s ) =å f (x – m ) N.…………(4)to understand measure; first, the type of data distribution relative to central tendency. If data are widely dispersed, the central location is less representative of data as a whole than it would be for data more closely centered around the mean. Secondly, to determinethe extreme values that should be excluded from data set and to recalculate the mean for data set. Third,to compare dispersions of various samples, wide spread of value away( f ) = frequency of observation, x = observation, µ = mean ofobservation, N= number of observation Standardscore also studied to explain exactly how much each value in data set far from mean in term of units of standard deviation that lie above or below the mean as in equation (5):from the center is undesirable or presents an unacceptable risk, it is needed to recognize and avoid distributions with the greatestdispersion (Levin, 1981). According to Levin,(x – m )Standardscore =s….
. (5)the four equationfor range of data, standarddeviation, standard score, and coefficient of variation are explained below.At first the range was measured for understanding the dispersion of data as in equation (3):Range = value of highest observation – value of lowest observation ……………………………………..
. (3) Figure-3. Normal distribution curve. Nevertheless, standard deviation still absolute measure of dispersion that expresses variation in the same units as the original data. So for compare two set of data or more we can not use only the standard deviation and mean , we need a relative measure that give indication for the magnitude deviation relative to the mean of data set. The coefficient of variation is one such relative measure of dispersion. It relates the standard deviation as a percentageof the mean as in equation (6):sRESULTS AND DISCUSIONSThe characteristics of the data collected for effect of risks around the project management processes on the project cost are explained in Table-2. Mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation was obtained for each element.
Coefficient of variation =m…………………………. (6) Table-2. Project management processes, effects on project cost and probability of occurrence. Project management processes Effect on project cost Probability of occurrence Mean (µ) % Stand. Dev.
(?) Coeff. of variation Mean (µ) % Stand. Dev. (?) Coeff.
of variation Strategic process Independency management Scope related Time related Cost related Resources related Personnel related Communication related Risk related Purchasing related The characteristics of the data collected for effect of risks around the quality management processes on the project cost are explained in Table-3. Mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation was obtained for each element. The risk around product realization process was the most factorsThe most elements that the questioners hesitated around there effect value were product realization process. Table-3.
Quality management processes,effect on project cost and Probabilityof occurrence. Quality management processes Effect on project cost Probability of occurrence Mean (µ) % Stand. Dev. (?) Coeff.
of variation Mean (µ) % Stand. Dev. (?) Coeff.
of variation Quality system Management responsibility Resources management Product realization Measurement, analysis and development For each source of risk relatedto processes within integratedquality management system, the weight simply calculated by multiplying the effect of each process risks by the probability of it. Table-4 lists the fifteen sources of risks with their effect assessment and probability of occurrence (column1 and 2,respectively). The grossweight obtained for each element in column 3then by divided each weight by the sum of all grossweight for all element (sum of column 3), the specific weight would be determined as percent. Table-4. Integrated management system, specific weight ofelements. SYSTEM ELEMENTS Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Effect on project cost % Probability of occurrence % Gross weight Col. 1 x Col. 2 Specific weight % 1 Quality system 2 Management responsibility 3 Resources management 4 Product realization 5 Measurement, analysis and development 6 Strategic process 7 Independency management 8 Scope related 9 Time related 10 Cost related 11 Resources related 12 Personnel related 13 Comm.
related 14 Risk related 15 Purchasing related Total: CONCLUSIONS? The results of thisstudy confirm that project andquality management processes are an important aspect of the civil engineering and construction industry. Further, it has statistically demonstrated that the project management functions-time related process, cost related process and product realization are the most important articles in the integrated management system.? The current quality guides have not concentrate on the expected risks around the requirements. It mentioned only the benefits and don’t provide the solution for prevent, minimizeor release the risk effects.
? Rapid changes in construction technology are contributing to a major complication in process management of the traditional construction projects. This construction change supported by the information technology (IT) need to change the engineering professions toward develops the management skill and support it with same tools of IT.? This study explain the relativeimportance for each element within integrated management system as first step, this will follow by develop the research vertically by study the risk factors in detail and horizontally by adding the environmental requirements to the system. For using IT tools, expert system will developed in next step for achieve the analysis of data collected for the project and to provide promote detail prediction reports for the situation of project.
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